Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook

Week 23 · June 1 – 5, 2026 · Prepared Sunday, May 31, 2026

The new trading week is dominated by a monetary-policy regime change. With Kevin Warsh sworn in as the new Fed Chair on May 29, the tone in Washington has shifted markedly: the new chief’s distinctly hawkish stance has led markets to price roughly a 70% probability of a U.S. rate hike by year-end. At the same time, the ECB delivers a closely watched decision on Thursday, Australian Q1 GDP is due Wednesday, and Friday’s U.S. payrolls report (NFP) caps an eventful week.

What happened this week?

United States
– With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh sworn in on May 29, policy expectations have flipped: markets now price about a 70% probability of a rate hike by year-end, taking an easing cycle off the table for now (Council on Foreign Relations).
– The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, came in at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month in April – the monthly figure undershot fears, which initially supported equities (Yelza).
– Headline inflation stands at 3.8%, well above the central bank’s 2% target, while the policy rate holds at 3.75%.
– The economy remains resilient: GDP last grew at an annual rate of 2.7% and the unemployment rate is low at 4.3% – a backdrop that underpins Warsh’s hawkish line.
– This week’s focus falls on the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Monday), the ISM Services PMI (Wednesday) and Friday’s jobs report.

Eurozone
– Eurozone inflation rose to 3.0% in April (from 2.6% prior), now a full percentage point above the ECB’s 2% target (Le Monde).
– Core inflation, by contrast, eased slightly to 2.2% as services price pressures decelerated (Reuters).
– The ECB deposit rate currently stands at 2.00%; a hold is expected at Thursday’s meeting, but markets anticipate strong signals of a near-term rate hike (Reuters).
– Growth remains weak: GDP expanded just 0.1% in the first quarter, driven by Middle East-fueled energy prices.
– The unemployment rate holds near a record low at 6.2%.

Germany
– German inflation eased to 2.6% (from 2.9% prior), below the eurozone average.
– The eurozone’s largest economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter, outperforming the currency bloc as a whole.
– The labor market improved slightly, with the unemployment rate falling to 6.3%.

United Kingdom
– UK inflation fell sharply to 2.8% (from 3.3%), moving closer to the Bank of England’s target.
– The Bank of England’s policy rate stands at 3.75%, keeping it among the most restrictive of the major G7 central banks (aside from the Fed’s new stance).
– GDP grew a robust 0.6% in the first quarter, beating expectations.

Japan
– Japanese inflation remains moderate at 1.4%, still below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.
– The BoJ holds its policy rate at 0.75%, remaining the major outlier in the global rate landscape.
– The economy gained momentum: GDP grew 0.5% in the first quarter, a notable acceleration from the prior quarter.

China
– China’s economy continues to grapple with soft domestic demand and persistent strains in the property sector.
– Authorities are leaning on targeted stimulus to support the growth target, while export momentum suffers under global trade tensions.
– This week’s Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs will offer a read on activity at the start of the quarter.

Australia
– Australia’s economy last grew at an annual rate of 2.6% and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, with the closely watched Q1 GDP print due Wednesday taking center stage.
– Inflation remains well above the target band at 4.2%, keeping the RBA’s policy rate at 4.35%; speeches by Governor Bullock and Deputy Hauser will be closely followed.

Global
– Energy prices remain the key inflation risk: the Middle East-driven surge in oil continues to act as a driver of global consumer prices (Le Monde).
– The regime change at the top of the Fed has reshaped the global rate landscape – the prospect of hikes rather than cuts supports the U.S. dollar and weighs on rate-sensitive assets.
– Gold trades near record levels at $4,542.47, up +1.04%, as investors continue to seek safety amid geopolitical and inflationary uncertainty.
– Oil prices eased, with WTI at $87.36 (-1.73%) and Brent at $91.12 (-1.70%).
– U.S. equities were firm: the S&P 500 closed at 7,580.06 (+0.22%) and the Nasdaq Composite at 26,972.62 (+0.20%).

This week’s market movers

Forex
The currency market is dominated this week by diverging central-bank paths. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance and the roughly 70% probability of a U.S. rate hike broadly support the U.S. dollar against most counter-currencies (CBS News).
– EUR/USD – In focus around Thursday’s ECB meeting: signals of a June hike could support the euro, but it faces a strong dollar trend.
– GBP/USD – Weighed by easing UK inflation (2.8%), which narrows the Bank of England’s room for further tightening.
– USD/JPY – The extreme rate differential between the Fed and the BoJ (policy rate 0.75%) keeps the yen under depreciation pressure.
– AUD/USD – Highly sensitive to Wednesday’s Q1 GDP print and the RBA speeches from Bullock and Hauser.

Commodities
– Gold – $4,542.47 (+1.04%); benefiting as a safe haven amid geopolitical and inflationary uncertainty.
– Brent Crude – $91.12 (-1.70%); profit-taking after Middle East-driven highs.
– WTI Crude – $87.36 (-1.73%); tracking Brent weakness.
– Copper – $6.39 (-0.58%); weighed by growth-related demand concerns.
– Silver – $68.33 (-0.04%, iShares Silver Trust); little changed.

Indices
– S&P 500 – 7,580.06 (+0.22%).
– Nasdaq Composite – 26,972.62 (+0.20%).
– DAX – 25,104.70 (+0.05%).
– Bitcoin – $73,854.17 (+0.55%).
– Ethereum – $2,024.41 (+0.54%).

Stocks – Tops
| # | Name | Change |
|—|——|——–|
| 1 | Replimune Group (REPL) | +85.68% |
| 2 | Virgin Galactic (SPCE) | +36.42% |
| 3 | PagerDuty (PD) | +33.47% |
| 4 | Dell Technologies (DELL) | +32.88% |
| 5 | Okta (OKTA) | +30.14% |
| 6 | Magnachip Semiconductor (MX) | +29.60% |
| 7 | Chagee Holdings (CHA) | +25.59% |
| 8 | NetApp (NTAP) | +22.39% |
| 9 | TSS, Inc. (TSSI) | +21.71% |
| 10 | Daily Target 2X Long ORCL ETF (ORCX) | +21.64% |

Stocks – Flops
| # | Name | Change |
|—|——|——–|
| 1 | Oculis Holding (OCS) | -23.42% |
| 2 | Ambarella (AMBA) | -21.41% |
| 3 | CPS Technologies (CPSH) | -18.74% |
| 4 | NL Industries (NL) | -17.53% |
| 5 | Everspin Technologies (MRAM) | -15.61% |
| 6 | The Gap (GAP) | -15.32% |
| 7 | Julong Holding (JLHL) | -14.83% |
| 8 | AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) | -14.79% |
| 9 | Enigmatig (EGG) | -14.38% |
| 10 | RoboStrategy (BOT) | -14.15% |

Among the most actively traded names, NVIDIA (-1.45%), Intel (-5.14%) and SoFi Technologies (+7.37%) were at the center of trading activity.

Key events ahead

Monday, June 1, 2026
– 9:45 AM ET – United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final) / Previous: 52.3 / Forecast: 52.3
– 10:00 AM ET – United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI / Previous: 48.7 / Forecast: 49.0
– 10:00 AM ET – United States – ISM Manufacturing Prices / Previous: 69.8 / Forecast: 70.0
– Daytime – Eurozone – HCOB Manufacturing PMI (final) / Previous: 49.5 / Forecast: 49.5

Tuesday, June 2, 2026
– 5:00 AM ET – Eurozone – Producer Price Index (PPI) m/m / Previous: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.2%
– 10:00 AM ET – United States – Factory Orders m/m / Previous: -3.6% / Forecast: +1.5%
– Daytime – Australia – RBA speech by Governor Michele Bullock / Previous: n/a / Forecast: n/a

Wednesday, June 3, 2026
– 9:30 PM ET (prior day) / 11:30 AM AEST – Australia – GDP Q1 q/q / Previous: +0.8% / Forecast: +0.5%
– 9:30 PM ET (prior day) – Australia – GDP Q1 y/y / Previous: +2.6% / Forecast: +2.3%
– 8:15 AM ET – United States – ADP Employment / Previous: 62,000 / Forecast: 85,000
– 9:45 AM ET – United States – S&P Global Services PMI (final) / Previous: 51.2 / Forecast: 51.2
– 10:00 AM ET – United States – ISM Services PMI / Previous: 51.6 / Forecast: 52.0
– Daytime – Australia – RBA speech by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser / Previous: n/a / Forecast: n/a

Thursday, June 4, 2026
– 8:15 AM ET / 2:15 PM CET – Eurozone – ECB rate decision (deposit rate) / Previous: 2.00% / Forecast: 2.00% (hold)
– 8:30 AM ET – United States – Initial Jobless Claims / Previous: 224,000 / Forecast: 228,000
– 8:30 AM ET – United States – Trade Balance / Previous: -$61.2B / Forecast: -$63.0B
– 8:45 AM ET / 2:45 PM CET – Eurozone – ECB press conference with President Lagarde / Previous: n/a / Forecast: n/a

Friday, June 5, 2026
– 8:30 AM ET – United States – Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) May / Previous: +115,000 / Forecast: +102,000
– 8:30 AM ET – United States – Unemployment Rate May / Previous: 4.3% / Forecast: 4.4%
– 8:30 AM ET – United States – Average Hourly Earnings m/m / Previous: +0.2% / Forecast: +0.2%
– 5:00 AM ET – Eurozone – Retail Sales m/m / Previous: -0.1% / Forecast: +0.2%

Key earnings to watch

Monday, June 1, 2026
– Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) – after market
– Credo Technology Group (CRDO) – after market
– Science Applications International (SAIC) – before market

Tuesday, June 2, 2026
– Palo Alto Networks (PANW) – after market
– Dollar General (DG) – before market
– Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – after market
– GitLab (GTLB) – after market
– Signet Jewelers (SIG) – before market

Wednesday, June 3, 2026
– Broadcom (AVGO) – after market
– CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) – after market
– Medtronic (MDT) – before market
– Veeva Systems (VEEV) – after market
– Five Below (FIVE) – after market
– Macy’s (M) – before market
– C3.ai (AI) – after market

Thursday, June 4, 2026
– Lululemon Athletica (LULU) – after market
– DocuSign (DOCU) – after market
– Ciena (CIEN) – before market
– Samsara (IOT) – after market
– Rubrik (RBRK) – after market
– Brown-Forman (BF-B) – before market
– The Cooper Companies (COO) – after market

Friday, June 5, 2026
– ABM Industries (ABM) – before market
– G-III Apparel Group (GIII) – before market
– Nordic American Tankers (NAT) – after market

Source and Copyright: Traders’ Leadership Council, 2026.

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