Weekly Outlook

Weekly Outlook

What happened this week?

United States
– The first estimate of US Q1 2026 GDP is in focus, with a robust 2.6% annualized growth expected despite headwinds.
– February core PCE inflation remained sticky at 3.0%, driven by energy and import costs resulting from the Middle East conflict.
– The market is bracing for earnings from the “Magnificent 7” (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple) amid scrutiny over skyrocketing AI capital expenditures.
– The Federal Reserve concludes its FOMC meeting on Wednesday, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
– US retail sales jumped to a three-year high in March.

Eurozone
– The European Central Bank (ECB) holds its policy meeting on Thursday. Persistent inflation is expected to keep the deposit rate (2.00%) and refinancing rate (2.15%) steady.
– Eurozone Q1 GDP figures will be released, anticipating a mild recovery following sluggish growth in 2025.
– Core inflation (HICP) in Europe remains a primary concern for the ECB, with April flash estimates due this week.

Germany
– German Q1 GDP data will be published, as the country continues to struggle with high energy prices and weak industrial demand.
– Retail sales and preliminary April inflation figures will offer key insights into domestic demand.

United Kingdom
– The Bank of England meets on Thursday to decide on interest rates. The benchmark rate is broadly expected to be maintained at 3.75%.
– Investors will carefully read the BoE’s commentary, as inflation could tick up due to elevated energy prices.

Japan
– The Bank of Japan (BoJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The key interest rate is expected to stay at 0.75% amidst persistent yen weakness.
– The BoJ’s Quarterly Outlook Report will be crucial in evaluating the timeline for future interest rate hikes.

China
– Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs for April will be released on Thursday, providing insights into the recovery of the world’s second-largest economy.
– Trading volumes are expected to thin out towards the end of the week ahead of the May 1 Labor Day holidays.

Australia
– Key quarterly and monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will be published on Wednesday, preceding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting the following week.
– Inflation in Australia remains pressured by global supply chain disruptions.

Global
– This is one of the most critical macroeconomic weeks of the year, featuring rate decisions from five major central banks (BoJ, BoC, Fed, BoE, ECB).
– The ongoing conflict in the Middle East (Iran) and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continue to support high oil prices (Brent above $106).
– The IMF has warned that global economic growth could slow down to 3.1% in 2026 due to geopolitical shocks.

This week’s market movers

Forex
– EUR/USD: 1.17 (+0.07%)
– GBP/USD: 1.35 (+0.13%)
– USD/JPY: 34.02 (+0.16%)
– Bitcoin (BTC-USD): 78,856 USD (+0.24%)

Commodities
– Gold (GC=F): 4740.10 (-0.02%) USD
– Silver (SI=F): 76.37 (-0.06%) USD
– WTI Crude Oil (CL=F): 95.42 (+1.08%) USD
– Brent Crude Oil (BZ=F): 106.52 (+1.13%) USD

Indices
– S&P 500 (^GSPC): 7165.08 (+0.80%)
– DAX (^GDAXI): 24128.98 (-0.11%)
– Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC): 24836.60 (+1.63%)

Stocks – Tops
MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL): +76.12% ($60.32)
Atomera Incorporated (ATOM): +38.93% ($8.60)
iHeartMedia, Inc. (IHRT): +35.16% ($5.42)
Organon & Co. (OGN): +30.93% ($11.26)
POET Technologies Inc. (POET): +28.84% ($15.10)

Stocks – Flops
Skillz Inc. (SKLZ): -36.47% ($7.91)
Liberty Broadband Corporation (LBRDA): -25.74% ($41.89)
Charter Communications, Inc. (CHTR): -25.50% ($180.13)
StoneCo Ltd. (STNE): -16.01% ($12.22)
Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL): -15.09% ($2.42)

Key events ahead

Monday, April 27
No major economic data scheduled.

Tuesday, April 28
03:00 – Japan – BoJ Interest Rate Decision / Previous: 0.75% / Forecast: 0.75%
08:00 – Eurozone – Euro Area Bank Lending Survey (BLS)
10:00 – United States – CB Consumer Confidence (April)

Wednesday, April 29
12:00 – Germany – Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (CPI) Flash
18:30 – United States – FOMC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference / Previous: 3.50-3.75% / Forecast: 3.50-3.75%

Thursday, April 30
06:00 – Germany – GDP Q1 Flash / Previous: +0.3%
06:00 – Germany – Retail Sales
09:00 – Eurozone – Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (CPI) Flash
09:00 – Eurozone – GDP Q1 Flash
12:15 – Eurozone – ECB Interest Rate Decision / Previous: 2.15% / Forecast: 2.15%
12:30 – United States – GDP Q1 Flash / Previous: 0.5% / Forecast: 2.6%
12:30 – United States – Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index) Q1

Friday, May 1
Public Holiday in Europe, China, Japan (Labor Day)
14:00 – United States – ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (April)

Key earnings to watch

Monday, April 27: Verizon Communications (VZ), Cadence Design Systems, Nucor Corporation, Celestica.
Tuesday, April 28: Visa, Coca-Cola (KO), T-Mobile US, Seagate Technology.
Wednesday, April 29: Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Boeing.
Thursday, April 30: Apple (AAPL), Mastercard (MA), Eli Lilly (LLY), Amgen, ConocoPhillips, Caterpillar.
Friday, May 1: ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Dominion Energy.

Source and Copyright: Traders’ Leadership Council, 2026.

---